Elections to the US Senate in 2024

With Democrats clinging to a razor-thin 51-49 Senate majority, the fight for control of the chamber when it convenes in January 2025 will be intense. In contrast, Democrats were dealt extremely difficult districts to run for in the 2024 election.

In 2024, Democrats may need to defend each of the eight seats in the chamber that are most at risk.

The top races on this list are in West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana, where Democratic incumbents are attempting to stem a rising Republican wave. Five Democratic-held seats in states where Donald Trump either won in 2016 (Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan) or came close in 2016 and 2020 (Nevada) are included in the next tier of races.

Republicans are only defending two districts in 2024 that appear to be reasonably competitive: Texas and Florida, so they can primarily play offence.

We classified three races—in Arizona, Ohio, and Montana, all of which have seats now controlled by Democrats—in the Tossup category based on discussions with political experts in these states. In West Virginia, one Democratic-held seat has a Republican lean. Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are the other four Democratic-leaning districts, all of which are currently held by Democrats.

The 2024 Senate election’s key states are shown below. From most likely to go Republican to most likely to go Democratic, the seats are given in descending order.

Table of Contents

Safe Republican

The following states have open seats: Indiana (Josh Hawley for Missouri), Mississippi (Roger Wicker for Mississippi), North Dakota (Kevin Cramer), Nebraska (Deb Fischer for Nebraska special election), Tennessee (Marsha Blackburn for Tennessee), Utah (Mitt Romney), and Wyoming (John Barrasso).

Likely Republican

Florida

The fact that Republican Sen. Rick Scott of Florida is the party’s second-best chance to gain up seats in the Senate during the 2024 election cycle is indicative of how difficult the map is for Democrats. Scott is running two years after the Republicans overwhelmingly defeated the Democrats in Florida’s 2022 midterm elections. He is an incumbent, affluent, well-known from his two terms as governor, and he is also an incumbent. Additionally, one of the two Florida residents running for president in the GOP, either Gov. Ron DeSantis or former President Donald Trump, will likely hold that position.

To the extent that Scott has a weakness, it’s that he’s not beloved among other Senate Republicans. He’s feuded with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell over campaign tactics, and as head of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm during the 2022 cycle, the GOP not only failed to flip the chamber to the GOP but actually lost a seat. Some Republicans blame him for releasing a policy manifesto that initially called for cuts to Social Security and Medicare and became a focus of Democratic attacks. While Scott later backed off the idea, his history with the issue could resurface in his reelection bid.

Given the party’s deteriorating fortunes in the state, the Democrats now lack a clear front-runner for the nomination, and their bench is small. Former representatives Stephanie Murphy and Gwen Graham are potential contenders; both of them are likely to run as moderates. Another option is Andrew Warren, who became a martyr for Democrats, particularly progressives, after DeSantis fired him as Hillsborough County’s state’s attorney for not abiding by conservative prosecution standards. Jennifer Jenkins, a former member of the Brevard County school board, is another candidate DeSantis may attack. Former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, State Senator Shevrin Jones, and State House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell are more contenders.

A wild card could be a non-traditional but high-profile candidate, such as former NBA stars Grant Hill or Dwayne Wade. Some observers suggest that this might end up as the Democrats’ best shot, if they can recruit such a candidate to run.

“If Democrats nominate a traditional candidate, we can probably expect a similar result as 2022 – a Republican hold,” predicts Sean D. Foreman, a political scientist at Barry University. “Democrats need an engaging and provocative candidate, they need to start talking about important policy issues right away, and they need to secure the financial support of the national party and donor class if they want to compete for this seat seriously.”

Texas

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, a typically red state, is the early front-runner in his bid for a third term. In Texas statewide elections, Republicans normally hold a roughly 10-point lead at the outset. Cruz is in some danger, though, due to his abrasive demeanour, his staunch political beliefs, and Texas’ minor ideological centrization in previous election cycles. Cruz nearly avoided being defeated by the Democratic contender, then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke, in his first reelection campaign in 2018.

Rep. Colin Allred, a charismatic former NFL player who triumphed in a challenging House contest in a competitive district in 2018, appears to be the ideal candidate for Democrats this time around. Allred will face opposition for the Democratic nomination, but due to his widespread recognition, he is currently in the lead.

According to David Crockett, a political scientist at Trinity University, “A competent campaign by Allred that can avoid hot-button social issues could make the race interesting, especially in a presidential election year,” when turnout is higher.

The fundraising process will be difficult for Allred. Allred will need to raise enough money to compete on television in as many as 20 Texas media markets, whereas Cruz has built up a national fundraising base as a result of his 2016 presidential campaign.

“Democrats focused on retaining control of the Senate know that it would cost about the same amount of money to run the same robust statewide media campaign in a longshot Texas U.S. Senate race as it would cost to run the same robust statewide media campaign combined in five states that observers consider to be lean or toss-up states in 2024: Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, West Virginia and Montana,” says Rice University political scientist Mark P. Jones.

Cruz led Allred, 47% to 40%, according to a Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll conducted in May. Only 9% of respondents were uncertain. Cruz led a survey conducted by the University of Texas at Tyler, 42% to 37%, with 145 respondents answering “someone else” and 7% saying they were undecided.

Later in the cycle, if Allred fulfils his campaign promises, this race may lean Republican.

Lean Republican

West Virginia

No state has shifted further toward Republicans in the past 20 years than West Virginia. Sen. Joe Manchin is now the only statewide elected Democrat in West Virginia, a state that went massively for Donald Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. If Manchin runs for reelection – which is not a certainty, since his name has been floated as a third-party presidential candidate – the Democrats have a shot at keeping his crucial – if not always reliable – 51st Senate vote. Manchin has increasingly been positioning himself to be at odds with the Biden administration over its rollout of the Inflation Reduction Act and its new power plant regulations, saying he’ll oppose EPA nominees over it.

Gov. Jim Justice is up against Rep. Alex Mooney in the GOP primary. Both candidates are reputable and well-known, but Justice, who was a billionaire until recently, has larger money and a down-home populist demeanour, including his constant canine friend, Babydog. Mooney may rely on funding from the Club for Growth, an establishment group. It’s conceivable that they’ll argue over ideologies.

Mooney formerly resided in Maryland, whereas Justice is a native West Virginian. They differ in their links to the state (Justice was initially elected governor as a Democrat, but has occasionally deviated from GOP orthodoxy). Justice will highlight his achievements as governor, while Mooney will highlight his remarkable victory in 2022 in a newly created district that covers the northern half of the state.

Unfavourably for the incumbent, Justice was ahead of Manchin by 54% to 32% in a late May survey by the East Carolina University Centre for Survey Research. According to observers, a contentious GOP primary would jeopardise the Democrats’ fading chances of regaining the state. If Manchin decides not to run, the election is expected to go Republican Safe.

Toss-Up

Arizona

The Senate race in Arizona in 2024 is expected to be the most contentious in the nation. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the current senator, was chosen as a Democrat in 2018. However, after a tumultuous time as a crucial but unreliable vote for Biden’s agenda, she changed her party affiliation after the 2022 elections. Despite this, she continues to caucus with Democrats, allowing the party to maintain its Senate majority.

Arizona voters who feel torn between the increasingly conservative GOP and the Democrats’ liberal national party may find Sinema’s moderate voting record appealing. Democrats, however, are no longer fond of Sinema because of her tense connections with the Biden administration and her frequently bizarre political behaviour. Sinema won’t be able to rely on the resources and funding of the state party as an independent.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Ruben Gallego is the expected nominee. If he continues to avoid a competitive primary, Gallego will be able to start campaigning early and focus on raising money. His challenge will be to ease Arizona voters’ concerns about his historically liberal voting record. He’s expected to run toward the center to court Republicans and independents disaffected with the state GOP’s shift to the right.

On the GOP side, there is no clear front-runner. The big moment would be if Kari Lake decided to compete. In 2022, Lake, a former television newsreader, ran unsuccessfully for governor after winning the support of the party’s Trump wing for her emphasis on election fraud. Despite the fact that Lake is regarded as a skilled politician, her stances are toxic outside of the staunch GOP base.

As a candidate for the Senate, Lake would jeopardise the support of the majority of independent voters and 30% of Republicans, according to observers in Arizona. Which candidate would anti-Lake voters choose, Sinema or Gallego?

Alternative Republicans might run. Sheriffs frequently do well in elections in Arizona, and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb has already declared his candidature. But he is not well known across the state. Jim Lamon, a past self-funding candidate for the Senate in 2022, is another potential GOP contender.

Term-limited former governor Doug Ducey or Karrin Taylor Robson, who finished second to Lake in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, would have a better chance of winning the general election. However, Robson has already declared his withdrawal from the 2024 Senate race, and Ducey is not expected to run.

As everyone waits to see if Kari Lake enters the race or not, the GOP primary field will be stagnant, according to Mike Noble, the founder and managing partner of the polling company OH Predictive Insights. If so, she’ll be very challenging to defeat in the GOP primary.

There is still a long way to go before the general election, and at this stage, anything is still conceivable.

Ohio

Ohio has also become more red than West Virginia, and in 2024, the Democratic incumbent senator there is up for reelection.

Sherrod Brown is a talented politician who has won three terms in the Senate in a state where his pro-worker, blue-collar-oriented message has generally found favour with voters. Nevertheless, according to David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, “this will be the toughest electoral landscape Brown has ever faced.”

The possibility of unseating a Democratic incumbent has the Ohio GOP fired up to the point where it may result in a wide open GOP primary that resembles the knock-down, drag-out contest in 2022 for the nomination for the other Senate seat in the state. Republican J.D. Vance won the primary in that race and ultimately held the seat of retiring Republican Sen.

Rob Portman. In the general election, then-Rep. Tim Ryan did well against Vance but still lost by 6 points, which is a red flag for Brown because Ryan modelled both his manner and substance after Brown.

The GOP field already includes two well-funded hopefuls as declared candidates: state Sen. Matt Dolan, a relative moderate who finished a distant third in the 2022 Senate primary, and Bernie Moreno, a businessman from the Trump wing of the party. Both are capable of self-funding. Other candidates could join the race, notably Ohio’s secretary of state, Frank LaRose.

LaRose might have the best chance of winning the general election if he can win the primary, observers say, but he can’t self-fund the way Dolan and Moreno can.

Ultimately, the race is expected to boil down to whether Brown’s political talents outweigh the state’s overall leanings.

Paul A. Beck, a political scientist at Ohio State University, claims that “Brown is popular in Ohio, despite his clearly progressive credentials.” More than other Democrats, he has been able to win over voters in both urban and rural areas. The race, in my opinion, will be tight.

Montana

Jon Tester is now the lone statewide Democratic officeholder in Montana. Both legislative chambers are solidly Republican, although a bill that would have prevented a third-party candidate from draining votes away from the Republican nominee in 2024 – a problem that Montana Republicans have faced more than once in recent years – died last month in the legislature.

In a state that Donald Trump won twice, Tester is one of three Democratic senators up for reelection this year, along Manchin and Brown. His down-home manner and political savvy have helped him win in the past. But under Tester, the state has become more red in federal elections.

For the time being, the GOP nominee is unknown. The state’s two representatives in the House, Matt Rosendale and Ryan Zinke, governor Greg Gianforte, and attorney general Austin Knudsen are all potential Republican candidates.

Lean Democratic

Nevada

First-term Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen cannot assume anything on the fundamentals because Nevada has recently hosted some of the nation’s tightest elections.

Rosen is vulnerable if the GOP can have a strong candidate, according to political scientist David F. Damore of the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. The problem is right there.

Republicans routinely failed in the general election in Nevada’s important statewide contests in 2022, with the exception of the gubernatorial race, where they nominated Trump supporters. One of them, Jim Marchant, the secretary of state candidate who denied the results of the election, has already confirmed his candidature for the Senate in 2024.

Observers concur that Marchant would perform well in a primary but not in the general election. Sam Brown, a wounded soldier who lost the 2022 Senate primary to Adam Laxalt and is thought to be the preferred candidate of important national Republicans, is another option.

In that 2022 Senate race, Laxalt fell to Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto.

“I anticipate that Rosen will re-run Cortez Masto’s winning playbook from 2022: raise a ton of money, dominate the airwaves to define her opponent early in the general election campaign, and present herself as a moderate who works across party lines to deliver common-sense solutions for Nevada,” Damore says.

Wisconsin

Even though Wisconsin has been one of the states with the closest margins of victory in recent elections, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin won by an unexpectedly large 11-point margin in 2018. This clarifies why Baldwin is the early favourite in 2024, particularly if Democrats can maintain the momentum they displayed in the 2023 supreme court contest, where the more liberal nominee prevailed by around 13 points.

GOP primary candidates are still up for grabs in August 2024. Several possibilities have been mentioned, including Rep. Tom Tiffany and Kevin Nicholson, who has run unsuccessfully in the primaries for governor and senator.

“The size of the Republican field and how closely the candidates will be aligned with Trump are important variables that will not be known for a while,” says University of Wisconsin political scientist Barry C. Burden.

Pennsylvania

Due to his three terms in the Senate and his three terms as governor of Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has earned a legendary status in the state. Although Casey hasn’t done anything in particular to endanger his chances of winning a fourth term in the Senate (along with Wisconsin and Michigan), it’s prudent to list his seat as potentially vulnerable given that Pennsylvania was one of the three states that supported Trump in 2016 before switching to Biden in 2020.

At first, it looked like Doug Mastriano, the far-right candidate who lost Pennsylvania’s 2022 gubernatorial race by nearly 15 points, might run for the Senate seat, which Democrats would have welcomed. But on May 25, he said he wouldn’t run.

That leaves a potentially more formidable challenger: Dave McCormick, a deep-pocketed former hedge-fund executive who lost the 2022 Senate primary to television doctor Mehmet Oz but whose establishment credentials could enable him to make inroads into moderate GOP voters who disliked Mastriano.

One unknown is whether McCormick aligns himself with Trump in 2024 or pitches himself as a more establishment Republican, says Larry Ceisler, a Democratic strategist in the state. “I think in the end, this will be a nationalized Senate race: Wherever Pennsylvania goes in the presidential election, the Senate will follow.”

Michigan

The 2022 election saw Michigan Democrats have a strong election season, easily gaining the governorship and top statewide executive seats, and flipping control of both chambers of the legislature. This success was aided by abortion politics and the state GOP’s selection of radical candidates.

Democrats are aiming to capitalise on this momentum once more in 2024 when Democrat Debbie Stabenow’s Senate seat falls vacant as a result of her retirement.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a center-left candidate who has won three consecutive elections in tight districts, is the overwhelming favourite to win the Democratic nomination. Democratic campaigners would rather Slotkin run uncontested in the primary so they can concentrate on the general election.

Some other candidates are considering running, including the businessman from the Dearborn region Nassar Beydoun, as well as the Black State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh and former “CSI:NY” actor Hill Harper. Slotkin, though, continues to be the front-runner for the Democratic nomination.

There is unrest on the GOP side. Nikki Snyder, an elected member of the State Board of Education, is running for the position. A few other well-known Republicans have also been touted as potential rivals, although none have publicly declared their intentions to run.

In the general election, a Democrat, especially Slotkin, would have the advantage. According to Bill Ballenger, editor of the Ballenger Report, a newsletter on Michigan politics, “Republicans in Michigan are a mess right now, and Democrats have their act together.”

Likely Democratic

No races in this category

Safe Democratic

Maryland (open seat), California (open seat), Connecticut (Chris Murphy), Delaware (open seat), Hawaii (Mazie Hirono), Massachusetts (Elizabeth Warren), New Mexico (Martin Heinrich), New York (Kirsten Gillibrand), Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse), Virginia (Tim Kaine), Vermont (Bernie Sanders, independent who caucuses with Democrats), and Washington state (open seat) are the states with open seats.

Although competitive Democratic primaries are probable, it is anticipated that two of the three Democratic vacant seats will be solidly Democratic in the general election. (At least for the time being, it doesn’t appear that Delaware will have a contested Democratic primary.)

Here is how the two fiercely contested Democratic primaries are progressing.

California

The impending retirement of Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein has produced what promises to be an expensive and competitive primary. The three leading candidates are three House members: Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. Schiff and Porter hail from the Los Angeles area, while Lee, like Feinstein, is from the San Francisco Bay area.

The state’s historical preference for San Francisco-area politicians could benefit Lee. But other factors could benefit Schiff or Porter, including their national prominence and fundraising strength.

Meanwhile, given Feinstein’s age-related health struggles over the past few years (she turns 90 in June) voters may not want to elect the 76-year-old Lee. (Schiff and Porter are 62 and 49, respectively). In theory, if Feinstein is unable to serve out her term, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom would appoint a successor.

Newsom did say early in his tenure that he would appoint a Black woman to any vacant seat, which could suggest a Lee appointment, but some suspect with an active primary now underway, Newsom would let matters play out on their own and simply appoint a placeholder, such as former Gov. Jerry Brown, to fill out the remainder of Feinstein’s term.

The peculiar electoral system in California, where the top two finishers from each party compete in the general election, may have an impact on the primary results.

Early polling and legislative endorsements favour Schiff, but there is still a long way to go in the race. The unknown factor is gender. If Schiff wins, 2024 will mark the first time in 32 years that the state has two male senators, and in a runoff against either Porter or Lee, that could matter to some female voters. Alex Padilla will replace Kamala Harris in the Senate after she becomes vice president.

Former Los Angeles Dodger Steve Garvey announced his intention to run as a Republican in June. The Democratic candidate who finished first among Democrats in the primary would be strongly favoured to win the runoff if he runs and succeeds in doing so.

It would be historic if one of the three leading Democratic candidates were to prevail. According to Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist, only two serving members of Congress—John Tunney in 1970 and Barbara Boxer in 1992—have been elected to the Senate from California in the previous 54 years.

That is partially due to the fact that California has the most House representatives of any state, which means that none of the House members are very well-known outside of their area.

For this reason, South says, “no one should be under the illusion that being a sitting member of the House confers any particular advantage on any of the three from the get-go. They will all have to make their case to California voters, starting essentially from scratch.”

Maryland

Sen. Ben Cardin’s upcoming retirement in Maryland, another firmly blue state, has made Democratic candidates more accessible.

Three prominent candidates have already entered the race: Will Jawando, a council member in Montgomery County, another populated D.C. suburb; Rep. and wealthy businessman David Trone; and Angela Alsbrooks, the county executive of Prince George’s County, a large, predominantly Black suburb adjacent to Washington, D.C. Rep.

Jamie Raskin, who represents a large portion of Montgomery County and gained national recognition as a Democratic leader during Trump’s two impeachment investigations, is another significant candidate who might run for office.(If Raskin does run for Senate, it’s suspected that Jawando could exit the Senate race to run for Raskin’s House seat instead.)

Another possible entrant is Baltimore County Executive John Olszewski, but he might be more interested in waiting for the House seat held by Democrat Dutch Ruppersberger to open up.

According to commentators, Alsobrooks, Trone, and — assuming he enters the contest — Raskin comprise the top Democratic contenders. Instead of vying for governor in 2022, Alsobrooks gave Wes Moore a critical primary endorsement, which helped Moore win. Moore is therefore anticipated to officially or unofficially support Alsobrooks in the primary.

Additionally, Alsobrooks, who is Black herself, may benefit from the fact that the Democratic primary electorate is made up of around 40% Black voters. Additionally, Alsobrooks would be the first female member of the Maryland congressional delegation since Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski’s retirement in 2016.

One last thing about:

New Jersey

According to recent reports, a fresh round of federal grand jury subpoenas was issued in a criminal investigation that may implicate Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, and prosecutors are looking into whether he accepted gifts from a business under investigation. These changes came after Menendez was charged with federal wrongdoing in 2015. When the jury couldn’t agree on a verdict, the case was declared a mistrial. Prosecutors at the federal level declined to retry him.

As of right now, “there’s no hint of defection from Democrats,” according to Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics. The party would unite behind one of its chieftains, such as Rep. Mikie Sherrill or Rep. Andy Kim, if Menendez were to ever be unable to lead.

7 Efficient Ways to Boost your thesis Writing Skills

Elections to the US Senate in 2024